The darkest days in Europe since WWII continue.

February 24, 2023: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has evolved from a ‘military special operation’ into a protracted brutal war. It divides the larger world, far beyond Europe, endangering further progress in the path of humanity. The belief that economic prosperity on all sides is the best guarantee for peace in Europe turned out to be an illusion. Europe needs to invest much more in military strength. Countries have the undisputable right to live in secure borders. Ukraine therefore needs to win this war. As part of the European family, the country has to become a member of the EU and be part of an effective military security system.”

February 28, 2022: “The current tragedy in Europe marks some of the darkest days on this continent since WWII. It has made us speechless for a few days and upset. We deeply feel with the people and express the strongest solidarity on all levels possible. The world has changed, and so do policies. With the huge global long-term implications of this conflict, globalization, international understanding and collaborations remain key for the future wellbeing of the world. We need to strongly continue our efforts. The Ukraine deserves EU membership as part of any political solution.”

Klaus F. Zimmermann (2022). “Zeitenwende und die Schatten der Geschichte. Implikationen für wissenschaftliche Kooperationen in der ‚herausgeforderten‘ Globalisierung.” Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 91 (4), 57-66. Pre-publication version. Published, journal website.

English abstract

For years, the promotion of international scientific cooperation was considered the silver bullet of research policy. The Russian war of aggression and the resulting global polarization has undoubtedly increased the need to keep a closer eye on conflicts of interest and violations of ethical principles. Scientific diplomacy remains important and is needed. The central challenges of the world are of a global nature, they can therefore only be successfully tackled through international cooperation. Economic mechanisms (e. g. the advantages of the division of labor) favor globalization, and its power cannot be ignored in the long run. Science is also a public good, so it has to be organized internationally. In the future, however, there will be even more scientific cooperation between the states of the “New West”. The instruments of scientific cooperation remain unchanged. However, they will inevitably have a stronger regional focus and be more deeply politically anchored. The forthcoming more intense political regulations may cause conflicts of interest with the principle of independence of science. Although policymakers will have more guidelines for their scientific advisors, their international cooperation will continue to make a significant contribution to the quality of scientific advice.

RESEARCH freely accessible through the provided links.

Research from better times on the Ukraine: (i) 2013 – 2014 on the EaP countries undertaken for the EU commission and (ii) work on the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. IZA’s Founding Director Klaus F. Zimmermann was a co-leader of this research and supported the creation of the survey.

Eastern Partnership Migrants in Germany: Outcomes, Potentials and Challenges; IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 3:7 (2014); Costanza Biavaschi & Klaus F. Zimmermann
“We find that EaP migrants experience worse labor market outcomes than other migrant groups, but current and potential migrants hold qualifications in those areas were skill shortages are expected.”

Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching; IZA Research Report, No. 56, Bonn 2013 (164 pages); Martin Kahanec, Klaus F. Zimmermann, Lucia Kureková & Costanza Biavaschi
“The report points out that policy intervention needs to go beyond migration policy alone in order to achieve better labour market matching and to bring most benefits and least costs to receiving countries, sending countries and migrants.”

Migration from the Eastern Partnership Countries to the European Union — Options for a Better Future; IZA Research Report, No. 55, Bonn 2013 (50 pages); Luca Barbone, Martin Kahanec, Lucia Kureková & Klaus F. Zimmermann
“As a result of the analysis and findings of this project, we propose a gradual liberalisation of mobility between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership countries as a first-best policy alternative.”

The Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey: Towards a Better Understanding of Labor Markets in Transition; IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 1:9 (2012); Hartmut Lehmann, Alexander Muravyev & Klaus F. Zimmermann
“The paper presents the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS), which is one of the most widely used household and labor force surveys in Eastern Europe.”

The Russian-Ukrainian Earnings Divide; Economics of Transition, 20 (2012), pp. 1-35; Amelie F. Constant, Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann
“we find a persistent and increasing labour market divide between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians throughout Ukraine’s transition era. We establish that language, rather than nationality, is the key factor behind this ethnic premium favouring Russians.”

The Russian-Ukrainian Political Divide; Eastern European Economics, 49 (2011), pp. 97-109; Amelie F. Constant, Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann
“Analysis using unique micro data collected prior to the revolution finds that voting preferences for the forces of the forthcoming Orange Revolution were strongly driven by preferences for political and economic reforms but were also independently significantly affected by ethnicity, specifically, language and nationality. Russian speakers, as opposed to Ukrainian speakers, were significantly less likely to vote for the Orange Revolution, and nationality had similar effects.”

***

2017: Keynote of Zimmermann on “Migration & Wellbeing” at an International Conference in Kyiv: Info-Link

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Understanding the labour market costs of motherhood: A new paper published in the Journal of Population Economics

The paper shows that the long-run child penalty in annual earnings is 52 log points and the penalty largely depends on the reduction in weeks worked by mothers.

Casarico, A., Lattanzio, S.: Behind the child penalty: understanding what contributes to the labour market costs of motherhood. 

Journal of Population Economics (2023)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00937-1
Link to free read: https://rdcu.be/c5ZFr


Authors: Alessandra Casarico & · Salvatore Lattanzio
Handling JOPE Editor: Terra Mckinnish

JUST PUBLISHED

Vol. 36, Issue 2, April 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles.
https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-2

Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

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Cognitive Misperception and Chronic Disease Awareness: Evidence from Blood Biomarker Data

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that cognitive misperception poses great challenges to chronic disease management.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 1239, 2023

Cognitive Misperception and Chronic Disease Awareness: Evidence from Blood Biomarker Data – Download PDF
by Lin, Zhuoer & Fu, Mingqi & Chen, Xi

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Xi Chen

Author Abstract: Cognitive misperception contributed to poor decision-making; yet their impact on health-related decisions is less known. We examined how self-perceived memory was associated with chronic disease awareness among older Chinese adults. Data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Nationally representative blood biomarkers identify participants’ dyslipidemia and diabetes status. Among participants with biomarker identified dyslipidemia or diabetes, disease awareness was defined as self-reported diagnosis of the conditions. The proportions of disease awareness were lower for individuals with better self-perceived memory and those with more impaired cognitive ability, showing opposite patterns. Controlling for cognitive ability and covariates, self-perceived memory was negatively associated with the dyslipidemia and diabetes awareness. In particular, older adults with the highest level of self-perceived memory had significantly lower disease awareness as compared to those with the lowest level of self-perceived memory. Our findings were robust to alternative cognitive measures and were stronger for less educated rural residents or those living without children. Cognitive misperception poses great challenges to chronic disease management. Targeted interventions and supports are needed, particularly for the disadvantaged.

Featured image: ed-leszczynskl-on-unsplash

JUST PUBLISHED

Vol. 36, Issue 2, April 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles.
https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-2

Vol. 36, Issue 1, January 2023: Journal of Population Economics (JOPE) 16 articles. https://link.springer.com/journal/148/volumes-and-issues/36-1
Watch the videos of article presentations on December 1, 2022 during the GLO Global Conference 2022.

JOPE has CiteScore 6.5 (2021, LINK) & Impact Factor 4.7 (2021, LINK)

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers)Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

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Rebecca Blank dies at 67

We mourn the passing of Rebecca M. Blank, September 19, 1955 to February 17, 2023.

Top labor economist, academic administrator and policymaker with many rewards and very wide recognition. Great colleague, strong scientist, passionate policymaker, with strong social competence.

She had served the US government in various roles, finally as Acting Secretary of Commerce. Afterwards, she had been Chancellor of the University of Wisconsin–Madison and President-elect of Northwestern University.

Her research covered labor supply, unemployment, the role of gender and race, poverty, and inequality in general. She studied public policies and welfare reforms to deal with these issues.

She also supported transatlantic relationships through her affiliations with DIW Berlin, DIW DC, IZA and as a GLO Fellow. We owe her quite a lot.

Blank, R.M. Changes in inequality and unemployment over the 1980s comparative cross-national responses. Journal of Population Economics 8, 1–21 (1995). 
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00172035. Free to read: https://rdcu.be/c5Wp1

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The Protracted Ukraine War, Europe and the Role of China.

The Protracted Ukraine War, Europe and the Role of China

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi announced at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday (18 February 2023) an own Chinese proposal for a political settlement of Russia’s war in Ukraine to be presented next week. Further information.

Some background views:

  • The aggressive military conflict in Ukraine has evolved from a ‘military special operation’ into a permanent, protracted war.
  • It divides the larger world, far beyond Europe, endangering further progress in the path of humanity.
  • NATO is designed as a defense pact, getting militarily weaker and weaker in recent years.
  • The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, also supported by France and China in separate declarations, provided guarantees for Ukrainian territorial security.
  • The belief that economic prosperity on all sides is the best guarantee for peace in Europe turned out to be an illusion.
  • Unfortunately, Europe needs to invest now much more in military strength.
  • Countries have the undisputable right to live in secure borders.
  • It is in China’s interest to help find the path to a workable end of the war in Ukraine. 
  • Europe has to increase its strategic autonomy and proactivity; economically, technologically and militarily, but also on the diplomatic level.

Ukraine crisis hinders European autonomy. Opinion Piece by Klaus F. Zimmermann in “China Daily”, February 16, 2023, p. 9.

Ukraine crisis hinders Europe’s independence

Klaus F. Zimmermann

A distant observer from space may consider that the world currently faces again an eruption of a horde of the biblical Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Climate change, a pandemic (COVID-19), earthquakes, war, refugees, death and destruction, inflation, hunger, and, potentially, even a nuclear war. Dealing with all this properly requires common trust, international collaborations and effective diplomacy among nations.

The epicenter of the current misery in Europe is the military conflict in Ukraine, which has evolved from a military special operation into permanent, protracted war. It has the potential to permanently divide the larger world, far beyond Europe, endangering further progress in the path of humanity.

And it is also threatening the fruits of many long-term efforts to make the world better: Global wellbeing had substantially increased in recent decades with the end of history, the end of global confrontation and a global reduction of inequality. Trade and economic interactions had created growth and improved wellbeing and a better global understanding. The rise of China has been a strong part of this success story, and its global initiatives to initiate growth and development through infrastructure building, e.g., the Belt and Road Initiative, contribute further perspectives.

From a European point of view, this is all at stake, caused by the Ukrainian war. Why could this happen? And why with a focus on Europe? Many Europeans remain speechless that such a war could take place again on a continent where the security of national borders in the face of painful historical experiences has a very special value. 

Is Europe now paying the price for the US-led NATO’s eastward expansion?

NATO is designed as a defense pact, committing members to protect each other only from aggression by other countries. It was getting militarily weaker and weaker, with too low military budgets and a re-orientation towards limited global missions moving away from traditional defense capabilities in Europe. The US was even accused of becoming increasingly ignorant about Europe as it concentrated on the rising conflict with China in Asia. Former US president Donald Trump once even contemplated dissolving NATO and withdrawing from Europe.

With Ukraine becoming independent in 1991, the country inherited a substantial amount of Soviet nuclear weapons (with physical but no operational control), but transferred them to Russia within a decade. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, also supported by France and China in separate declarations, provided guarantees on territorial security. When in the early 2000s US President George W. Bush wanted Ukraine inside NATO, France and Germany opposed it in the interest of Russia.

Until last year, Germany’s traditional political parties and people had substantial sympathy for Russia. Policy was relying on change through trade and gave priority to economic relationships. The belief was that economic prosperity on all sides is the best guarantee for peace in Europe. It turned out to be an illusion.

This was also the driving idea behind the European Union East Enlargements since 2004, integrating most East European countries successfully after some years of economic development and social adjustments into a common and open European market for goods, capital and people.

However, it has not been possible to further develop the European security order to pacify Russia and to integrate the country forcefully into a successful economic transition. This is certainly a substantial failure of European, in particular German, policy and diplomacy.

What has happened is not the responsibility of the US. However, the military conflict in Ukraine also reveals to what substantial degree Europe needs to rely on strong transatlantic relationships and support. The crisis hinders Europe from being more independent of the US, militarily, economically and in particular on technological issues. Only when this military conflict ends, can Europe act more independently. If it continues or even ends with a destruction of Ukraine, this would further globalize and deepen the divide of the world.

It is in China’s interest to help find the path to a workable end of the conflict in Ukraine to stabilize the European order. Countries have a right to live in secure borders. Beyond all societal differences, China and Europe have similar challenges and conditions like aging societies, migration pressures and a strong export orientation. Collaborations and understanding with mutual respect for the different positions are needed.

Europe has to increase its strategic autonomy and proactivity; economically, technologically and militarily, but also on the diplomatic level. In particular Germany has to go a long way to take the requested leadership needed to balance the complex set of interests between European countries which are a prerequisite for finding solutions to the current and forthcoming challenges on the continent.

The European Union is not only concerned with supporting Ukraine but is also organizing a substantial transformation in energy use and other measures to fight climate change. Again, this challenge can only be handled with effective support of and partnership with China. By helping Europe to stabilize in the current crisis, and as a partner against climate change, China can ensure success and the proper use of its huge investments in the world through its Belt and Road Initiative.

The author, a professor at Free University of Berlin, is the president of the Global Labor Organization, a Germany-based world-wide network of researchers investigating the path of globalization.

Updated version of LINK.

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The Protracted Ukraine War and the Role of Europe.

The Protracted Ukraine War and the Role of Europe

  • The aggressive military conflict in Ukraine has evolved from a ‘military special operation’ into a permanent, protracted war.
  • It divides the larger world, far beyond Europe, endangering further progress in the path of humanity.
  • NATO is designed as a defense pact, getting militarily weaker and weaker in recent years.
  • The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, also supported by France and China in separate declarations, provided guarantees for Ukrainian territorial security.
  • The belief that economic prosperity on all sides is the best guarantee for peace in Europe turned out to be an illusion.
  • Unfortunately, Europe needs to invest now much more in military strength.
  • Countries have the undisputable right to live in secure borders.
  • It is in China’s interest to help find the path to a workable end of the war in Ukraine. (Link updated Februray 18.)
  • Europe has to increase its strategic autonomy and proactivity; economically, technologically and militarily, but also on the diplomatic level.

Ukraine crisis hinders European autonomy. Opinion Piece by Klaus F. Zimmermann in “China Daily”, February 16, 2023, p. 9.

Ukraine crisis hinders Europe’s independence

Klaus F. Zimmermann

A distant observer from space may consider that the world currently faces again an eruption of a horde of the biblical Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Climate change, a pandemic (COVID-19), earthquakes, war, refugees, death and destruction, inflation, hunger, and, potentially, even a nuclear war. Dealing with all this properly requires common trust, international collaborations and effective diplomacy among nations.

The epicenter of the current misery in Europe is the military conflict in Ukraine, which has evolved from a military special operation into permanent, protracted war. It has the potential to permanently divide the larger world, far beyond Europe, endangering further progress in the path of humanity.

And it is also threatening the fruits of many long-term efforts to make the world better: Global wellbeing had substantially increased in recent decades with the end of history, the end of global confrontation and a global reduction of inequality. Trade and economic interactions had created growth and improved wellbeing and a better global understanding. The rise of China has been a strong part of this success story, and its global initiatives to initiate growth and development through infrastructure building, e.g., the Belt and Road Initiative, contribute further perspectives.

From a European point of view, this is all at stake, caused by the Ukrainian war. Why could this happen? And why with a focus on Europe? Many Europeans remain speechless that such a war could take place again on a continent where the security of national borders in the face of painful historical experiences has a very special value. 

Is Europe now paying the price for the US-led NATO’s eastward expansion?

NATO is designed as a defense pact, committing members to protect each other only from aggression by other countries. It was getting militarily weaker and weaker, with too low military budgets and a re-orientation towards limited global missions moving away from traditional defense capabilities in Europe. The US was even accused of becoming increasingly ignorant about Europe as it concentrated on the rising conflict with China in Asia. Former US president Donald Trump once even contemplated dissolving NATO and withdrawing from Europe.

With Ukraine becoming independent in 1991, the country inherited a substantial amount of Soviet nuclear weapons (with physical but no operational control), but transferred them to Russia within a decade. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, also supported by France and China in separate declarations, provided guarantees on territorial security. When in the early 2000s US President George W. Bush wanted Ukraine inside NATO, France and Germany opposed it in the interest of Russia.

Until last year, Germany’s traditional political parties and people had substantial sympathy for Russia. Policy was relying on change through trade and gave priority to economic relationships. The belief was that economic prosperity on all sides is the best guarantee for peace in Europe. It turned out to be an illusion.

This was also the driving idea behind the European Union East Enlargements since 2004, integrating most East European countries successfully after some years of economic development and social adjustments into a common and open European market for goods, capital and people.

However, it has not been possible to further develop the European security order to pacify Russia and to integrate the country forcefully into a successful economic transition. This is certainly a substantial failure of European, in particular German, policy and diplomacy.

What has happened is not the responsibility of the US. However, the military conflict in Ukraine also reveals to what substantial degree Europe needs to rely on strong transatlantic relationships and support. The crisis hinders Europe from being more independent of the US, militarily, economically and in particular on technological issues. Only when this military conflict ends, can Europe act more independently. If it continues or even ends with a destruction of Ukraine, this would further globalize and deepen the divide of the world.

It is in China’s interest to help find the path to a workable end of the conflict in Ukraine to stabilize the European order. Countries have a right to live in secure borders. Beyond all societal differences, China and Europe have similar challenges and conditions like aging societies, migration pressures and a strong export orientation. Collaborations and understanding with mutual respect for the different positions are needed.

Europe has to increase its strategic autonomy and proactivity; economically, technologically and militarily, but also on the diplomatic level. In particular Germany has to go a long way to take the requested leadership needed to balance the complex set of interests between European countries which are a prerequisite for finding solutions to the current and forthcoming challenges on the continent.

The European Union is not only concerned with supporting Ukraine but is also organizing a substantial transformation in energy use and other measures to fight climate change. Again, this challenge can only be handled with effective support of and partnership with China. By helping Europe to stabilize in the current crisis, and as a partner against climate change, China can ensure success and the proper use of its huge investments in the world through its Belt and Road Initiative.

The author, a professor at Free University of Berlin, is the president of the Global Labor Organization, a Germany-based world-wide network of researchers investigating the path of globalization.

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Dressing up for the Carnival: My time as “Manuel Neuer”.

February 8, 2023: Opinion Piece. Global Insights – MyView

Dressing up for carnival becomes increasingly challenging. While migrants are often requested to assimilate to absorb the identity of the host country, assimilating temporarily becomes more and more politically incorrect. Dressing up for carnival as Indian has been quite standard in the past. However, as some argue now, this is “stealing ethnic identity”, absurd as it is.

Hence, to avoid conflict, I disguise this year as “Manuel Neuer”, the prominent soccer goalkeeper of Bayern München. Yes, I never played (just watching) soccer. But somewhat like him I currently stay home after an accident on ice and be out of business for longer periods. After complex foot surgery I can, at least, claim to be an authentic patient. Unfortunately, partying in this carnival season is only virtual from home.

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The EU’s migration muddle: Victoria Vernon interviewed in the news show ‘Brussels, my love?’ 

Europe’s migration policy is again under debate. GLO Fellow Victoria Vernon (State University of New York Empire State College) was interviewed in the news show ‘Brussels, my love?’ on Brussels, my love? The EU’s migration muddle and tanks for Ukraine (updated: 04/02/2023). She outlined the benefits of immigration and argued against new borders and fences on the background of her research with GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann.

LINK to the NEWS SHOW (her intervention on minute 16 pp.)

Background papers:

Why Fortress Europe won’t solve the migration crisis – and what will by Victoria Vernon & Klaus F. Zimmermann in: openDemocracy, January 11, 2023.

Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics by Vernon, Victoria & Zimmermann, Klaus F. in: Kourtit, K., Newbold, B., Nijkamp, P., Partridge, M. (Eds.), The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration, pp. 33-54.

Free access to the papers.

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Impressions from EBES 42

January 12-14, 2023. Lisbon, Portugal. 42th EBES HYBRID conference.
Conference Program: LINK

Day 2: Friday, January 13, 2023

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Why Fortress Europe won’t solve the migration crisis. Opinion piece by Victoria Vernon & Klaus F. Zimmermann in openDemocracy

January 11, 2023. The openDemocracy platform has published an opinion piece by Victoria Vernon & Klaus F. Zimmermann on:

Why Fortress Europe won’t solve the migration crisis
– and what will.

Europe wastes money on futile border fences when better solutions are staring it in the face.

LINK to the published article on the openDemocracy platform.

The article

Why Fortress Europe won’t solve the migration crisis – and what will by Victoria Vernon & Klaus F. Zimmermann in: openDemocracy, January 11, 2023.

It’s time to rethink EU migration policy. New walls are being built in Europe, but they will not solve the present crisis – and the money could be far better spent.

Instead, Serbia is constructing a fence on its border with North Macedonia and plans another to prevent crossings from Bulgaria. Greece is planning to extend its high-tech 40-kilometre-long, 5-metre-high steel, concrete and barbed wire fence on the border with Turkey by a further 140 kilometres. 

Over the past two years Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have fortified their borders with Belarus by erecting fences of steel and barbed wire at a cost of more than half a billion euros. Several years earlier, Hungary spent €1.64bn erecting steel and razor-wire barriers on its borders with Serbia and Croatia.

Around 1800 kilometres of border walls and fences have been built on the perimeter of the EU in the past decade. The hefty prices include cameras, heat sensors, drones, armed vehicles and guards to patrol and keep the outsiders out, as well as the costs of reduced trade between neighbours and damaged wildlife.

The new militarised borders are intended to slow down the inflow of irregular migrants entering the EU from the east along the western Balkan route. Over 228,000 undocumented asylum seekers from the Middle East, North Africa and Asia entered the EU last year, half of them along the Balkan route. That was a substantial increase on 2021, sparking fears of another refugee crisis similar to the one that sent a million undocumented refugees to the EU in 2015-16

Yet these expensive walls are unlikely to stop the refugees. If the wall can’t be scaled with ladders, it can be walked around: the wall on the Polish-Belarusian border may be 186 kilometres long, but that leaves 232 kilometres of the border unfenced. 

Nevertheless, these longer walls do force would-be migrants to take more dangerous routes. They also permit higher profits for smugglers and traffickers of people. For example, even though fewer refugees were apprehended in Hungary after the fence was built, the number of human smugglers arrested increased, and thousands of migrants continued to cross the southern Hungarian borders heading for western Europe. 

The long journeys of asylum seekers include dangerous crossings of seas or rivers, sleeping rough in cold and heat, and abuse by people smugglers. According to the Missing Migrants Project, more than 25,000 people have gone missing in the Mediterranean alone since 2014. 

Why take such risks? Refugees from Afghanistan may be escaping Taliban rule. Those from Turkey, Iraq and Syria may be fleeing wars. Economic migrants from Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Algeria and Morocco are determined to reach the EU to escape poverty, earn living wages and build a better life. Yet the EU meets them all with walls, barbed wire and filthy refugee camps.

There is a precedent for solving migration issues with humane policies, not walls. The war in Ukraine drove four times as many refugees into the EU in 2022 than the conflict in Syria did in 2015-16. In contrast, the status of Ukrainian refugees is regulated. 

Over 4.8 million of them, mostly women and children, have registered for the EU’s temporary protection scheme or other national programmes, including over 1m in Poland and Germany, and over 100,000 in the Czech Republic, Italy, Spain, the UK, Bulgaria and France. 

The EU’s Temporary Protection Directive allows Ukrainians to move freely between member states, gives them instant rights to live and work, and offers access to benefits like housing and medical care for up to three years.

While migrants are a net cost in the short run, in the long run they are taxpayers. Some will assimilate and settle in the EU, thus helping relieve its worker shortage and demographic crisis.

Why not adopt the same policies for Arab and African migrants? Governments can provide asylum-seekers with temporary accommodation, legal pathways to obtain jobs, language classes and modest financial support. Private companies can invest in human capital by training and hiring these workers. Once employed or in school, the young men – most of these migrants are young men – will pay taxes and productively contribute to the host society.

The fears that natives lose jobs to migrants are largely overstated, because migrants tend to take less desirable jobs. Moreover, they create new jobs within and outside diaspora communities – in other words, groups of migrants in host countries who have come from the same original culture.

If people in host countries are worried about an excess of young male migrants, the EU can design a ‘merit’ migration system like the one in Canada to welcome families with young children. Local diasporas and personal sponsors can be asked to support new migrants and bear some responsibility for their housing, language training and employment. With more support and mentoring available, migrants will be better able to assimilate into the EU culture.

There are some hopeful signs. The new Slovenian government is removing a 143-kilometre razor-wired border fence with Croatia, built during the 2015-16 refugee crisis, due to its ineffectiveness. Let’s hope that other countries will follow suit, and use the lessons of regulated migration of Ukrainian refugees to address the problem of other migrants in Europe and beyond.


The Op-ed is related to previously published research by the authors, in particular to the article “Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics”.


Walls and Fences: A Journey Through History and Economics

by Vernon, Victoria & Zimmermann, Klaus F.

In: Kourtit, K., Newbold, B., Nijkamp, P., Partridge, M. (Eds.), The Economic Geography of Cross-Border Migration, pp. 33-54.

Access to the published article

Article Abstract

Throughout history, border walls and fences have been built for defense, to claim land, to signal power, and to control migration. The costs of fortifications are large while the benefits are questionable. The recent trend of building walls and fences signals a paradox: In spite of the anti-immigration rhetoric of policymakers, there is little evidence that walls are effective in reducing terrorism, migration, and smuggling. Economic research suggests large benefits to open border policies in the face of increasing global migration pressures. Less restrictive migration policies should be accompanied by institutional changes aimed at increasing growth, improving security and reducing income inequality in poorer countries.

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