Klaus F. Zimmermann

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment, and performs a time series principal component analysis to study the relationship.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 735, 2020

Price, sales, and the business cycle: a time series principal component analysis – Download PDF
by Borraz, Fernando & Livan, Giacomo & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Ricardo, Pablo

GLO Fellow Fernando Borraz

Author Abstract: The main contribution of this work consist on studying sales behaviour and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators through a time series principal component analysis. We study the correlation structure of a large database on prices and found that all product sectors share a common correlation structure and the highest correlation and significance is achieved between employment variation and the first principal component, mostly in the second week of the following month. Sales or promotions, are a channel for price flexibility because firms can use them to change effective prices keeping sticky reference prices. We use a rich database of retail prices from Uruguay to characterize prices’ flexibility, the behavior of sales, and their relationship with local market conditions like labor market indicators. Finally, we find a positive and significant relationship between sales and unemployment and perform a time series principal component analysis to study these relationships.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

Using panel data on immigrant populations from Europe, Asia and Africa, a new GLO Discussion Paper finds positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health and mental health.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 734, 2020

Mobile applications aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration and overall level of integration, health and mental health. Does artificial intelligence enhance outcomes? – Download PDF
by Drydakis, Nick

GLO Fellow Nick Drydakis

Author Abstract: Using panel data on immigrant populations from European, Asian and African countries the study estimates positive associations between the number of mobile applications in use aiming to facilitate immigrants’ societal integration (m-Integration) and increased level of integration (Ethnosizer), good overall health (EQ-VAS) and mental health (CESD-20). It is estimated that the patterns are gender sensitive. In addition, it is found that m-Integration applications in relation to translation and voice assistants, public services, and medical services provide the highest returns on immigrants’ level of integration, health/mental health status. For instance, translation and voice assistant applications are associated with a 4% increase in integration and a 0.8% increase in good overall health. Moreover, m-Integration applications aided by artificial intelligence (AI) are associated with increased health/mental health and integration levels among immigrants. We indicate that AI by providing customized search results, peer reviewed e-learning, professional coaching on pronunciation, real-time translations, and virtual communication for finding possible explanations for health conditions might bring better quality services facilitating immigrants’ needs. This is the first known study to introduce the term ‘m-Integration’, quantify associations between applications, health/mental health and integration for immigrants, and assess AI’s role in enhancing the aforementioned outcomes.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies gender differences across multiple dimensions in individual responses to Covid-19 for the UK and attempts to model the various determinants.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 737, 2020

Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: Evidence from UK Prolific participants – Download PDF
by Oreffice, Sonia & Quintana-Domeque, Climent

GLO Fellow Climent Quintana-Domeque

Author Abstract: We investigate gender differences across multiple dimensions after three months of the first UK lockdown of March 2020, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 Prolific respondents residents in the UK. We find that women’s mental health was worse than men’s along the four metrics we collected data on, that women were more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceived the virus as more prevalent and lethal than men did. Women were also more likely to expect a new lockdown or virus outbreak by the end of 2020, and were more pessimistic about the contemporaneous and future state of the UK economy, as measured by their forecasted contemporaneous and future unemployment rates. We also show that, between earlier in 2020 before the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and June 2020, women had increased childcare and housework more than men. Neither the gender gaps in COVID-19-related health and economic concerns nor the gender gaps in the increase in hours of childcare and housework can be accounted for by a rich set of control variables. Instead, we find that the gender gap in mental health can be partially accounted for by the difference in COVID-19-related health concerns between men and women.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper for Italy suggests that measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrollment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 733, 2020

Unequal effects of the economic cycle on human capital investment. Evidence from Italian panel data – Download PDF
by Bonacini, Luca

GLO Fellows Luca Bonacini

Author Abstract: Human Capital Theory considers individuals’ education as an investment in terms of money, time, effort, and the renouncement of income opportunities that they expect will be compensated during their working life. While these benefits are mainly in the long run, direct and indirect costs are conditioned by the present circumstances, and in particular, by the macroeconomic conditions. The literature investigating the influence of the business cycle on enrolment decisions often suggests a counter-cyclical relationship without considering that economic fluctuations can produce heterogeneous effects among households facing different economic situations. Through a fixed effects regression based on panel data from the Italian component of the EU-SILC survey, I find the existence of a counter-cyclical propensity to enrol that is symmetric to the stages of the economic cycle. However, after disaggregating the analysis by household income quartiles, results show that a 1% increase in GDP reduces the probability of the poorest individuals being enrolled in non-compulsory education by 1.2%, while the wealthier portion of the population shows an a-cyclical relationship. The policy implications of these results are particularly important as they suggest that measures directed towards youths from poorer households to promote their enrolment in non-compulsory education should be strengthened when economic conditions improve.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the significant impact of a reentry and aftercare service program in the US on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders which is found to be successful.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 732, 2020

The Impact of a Reentry and Aftercare Program on Recidivism – Download PDF
by Cannonier, Colin & Galloway Burke, Monica & Mitchell, Ed

GLO Fellows Colin Cannonier & Monica Galloway Burke

Author Abstract: In this paper, we explore the impact of a reentry and aftercare service program on the likelihood of returning to prison by ex-offenders. Using administrative data within a difference-in-differences design, we find that this social program is associated with a reduction in recidivism rates. Benchmark estimates show that the program was associated with estimated reductions in the probability of recidivating of 6.0 to 8.7 percentage points. The estimate appears to be economically significant as it implies an estimated treated effect in the 15.8 to 19.2 percent range. We consider the heterogeneous effects of the program on reducing recidivism according to race, age group and program type. The program helped to reduce recidivism among Whites but not Blacks; older participants were the main beneficiaries while the effectiveness of the program was observed amongst older participants. Back-of-the-envelope cost-savings analysis is incorporated to estimate the potential savings to the state arising from the reduction in recidivism rates likely attributable to the program. The findings are robust to sample selection bias, alternative specifications and estimation techniques. Our results offer some implications for the role of faith-based social programs within the context of criminal justice reform to combat reentry of former inmates. They also provide a cautionary tale about the need to evaluate programs not just based on their overall effect.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies for the UK and the USA how the increased family time provided by the COVID-19 pandemic has affected well-being differently between countries and gender.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 736, 2020

Should we cheer together? Gender differences in instantaneous well-being during joint and solo activities: An application to COVID-19 lockdowns – Download PDF
by Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge

GLO Fellow José Alberto Molina

Author Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has confined millions in their homes, representing an unprecedented case for spending more time together with family members. This is a challenge for households, given that more time with the partner or children may not necessarily translate into increased well-being. This paper explores subjective well-being in the uses of time for US and UK workers, differentiating between solo activities and activities done with family members, at home and outside the home. Using American and British time use surveys, we compute the instant utility associated with paid work, unpaid work, leisure, and childcare activities. The results show that workers prefer joint leisure to solo leisure, and that significant differences exist between female and male workers for solo and joint market work and housework. Furthermore, we simulate a lockdown situation, which suggests diverging effects of a lockdown in the US and the UK, and on women and men. The conclusions of this paper may help to assess the psychological consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns, beyond the negative economic and labour market consequences.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that child marriage in Pakistan has decreased among women from wealthy and urban households, but is increasingly concentrated among older and less educated women and those belonging to poor, rural households.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 731, 2020

Girls Not Brides: Evolution of Child Marriage in Pakistan – Download PDF
by Javed, Rashid & Mughal, Mazhar

GLO Fellow Rashid Javed

Author Abstract: Child marriage is still widespread in countries across the Indian Subcontinent. The practice has important consequences for the health and well-being of the woman and the child. In this study, we examine the incidence of child marriage in Pakistan and the changes that have taken place over time in the profile of the women who marry before turning 18. We use data from all the four rounds of the representative Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS), namely 1990 − 91, 2006 − 07, 2012 − 13 and 2017 − 18. With the help of these data, we observe the evolution of the individual and household characteristics of early-marrying women over a span of three decades. We find that the practice of child marriage has become much less generalized over the past three decades. In 2017−18, 39% of married women of child-bearing age (i.e. those between the age of 15 and 49) had got married before the age of 18. Though still high, it is nonetheless lower than the 54% incidence found in 1990 − 91. The decrease is particularly significant among women from wealthy and urban households. The incidence of child marriage is increasingly concentrated among women who are older and less educated and those belonging to poor, rural households. Elimination of the harmful practice of child marriage is crucial for achieving the fifth Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) which deals with gender equality. The findings of the study highlight the close links present between child marriage, poverty and urbanization.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the consequences of the macroeconomic situation in Turkey for school-to-work transitions.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 730, 2020

School to Work Transition and Macroeconomic Conditions in the Turkish Economy – Download PDF
by Doruk, Ömer Tuğsal & Pastore, Francesco

GLO Fellows Ömer Tuğsal Doruk & Francesco Pastore

Author Abstract: In emerging market economies, young people feel like little boats in the ocean, due to the low and uncertain macroeconomic context. In the present study, we examine the school-to-work transition in Turkey over the period 2014-2017 by using a monthly dataset. As most emerging market economies, the Turkish one faces a set of different macroeconomic conditions which make it a very hard task for many young graduates to find a job . We use panel logit models which allow studying the determinants of the probability of school-to-work transition completion with a time variant model. We look at such macroeconomic factors as GDP growth, industrial production index, real sector confidence index, real exchange rate and interest rate. In addition, we use some classifications for estimating the wage model for the new graduates and estimate by panel logit models the probability for young graduates of getting a white-collar job. Besides, the estimates are repeated for boom and bust periods, and in credit expansion periods.

Featured image: Photo-by-Mikael-Kristenson-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;

A new GLO Discussion Paper studies the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrant newborns in Italy and finds that the negative effects on immigrants are not equally distributed across ethnicities, but rather they are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnicity and its related network at the municipal level.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 729, 2020

Birth in Hard Times When You Belong To Minorities – Download PDF
by Bertoli, Paola & Grembi, Veronica & Nguyen, The Linh Bao
Forthcoming 2021: Journal of Population Economics.

GLO Fellow Veronica Grembi

Author Abstract: Combining a unique dataset of birth records with municipal-level real estate information, we assess the impact of the 2008 recession on the health of immigrant newborns in Italy. Health at birth (e.g., low birth weight) of immigrants deteriorated more than health at birth of Italians. The negative effects on immigrants are not equally distributed across ethnicities, but rather they are driven by the main economic activity of the ethnicity and its related network at the municipal level. Immigrants whose ethnicity is mainly employed in the sectors most affected during the recession, suffered the most. By contrast, the recession hardship is mitigated for immigrants in municipalities where their ethnic network is organized through more registered immigrant associations. The characteristics of ethnic groups and their organization at the municipal level do not explain the heterogeneous effects on Italian newborns and this confirms network rather than neighborhood effects.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

Ends;