Klaus F. Zimmermann

A new paper published online in the Journal of Population Economics shows that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks and projects that climate change may increase seasonal differences in conception rates and cause a decline in fertility.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary
by Tamás Hajdu and Gábor Hajdu

Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS.

Author Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relationship between temperature and human conception rates and project the impacts of climate change by the mid-twenty-first century. Using complete administrative data on 6.8 million pregnancies between 1980 and 2015 in Hungary, we show that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks following exposure, but a partial rebound is observed after that. We project that with absent adaptation, climate change will increase seasonal differences in conception rates and annual conception rates will decline. A change in the number of induced abortions and spontaneous fetal losses drives the decline in conception rates. The number of live births is unaffected. However, some newborns will experience a shift in the timing of conception that leads to changes in in utero temperature exposure and therefore might have further consequences.

Journal of Population Economics
Access to the recently published Volume 34, Issue 2, April 2021.
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LEAD ARTICLE OF ISSUE 2, 2021:
Measuring gender attitudes using list experiments
by M. Niaz Asadullah, Elisabetta De Cao, Fathema Zhura Khatoon, and Zahra Siddique
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A new GLO Discussion Paper studies whether the different types of lockdown measures imposed at different periods and areas in the Philippines were effective in mitigating the pernicious effects of COVID-19.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 782, 2021

How effective is community quarantine in the Philippines? A quasi-experimental analysis – Download PDF
by Pajaron, Marjorie C. & Vasquez, Glacer Niño A

GLO Fellow Marjorie Pajaron & GLO Affiliate Glacer Niño Vasquez

Author Abstract: As the world races to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as voluntary social distancing and community quarantine (CQ) have been the first line of defense in breaking the chains of transmission in most countries. The efficacy of a public health measure, however, depends on a myriad of factors including its timing and optimal implementation, the proclivity of individuals in following protocols and information dissemination. We examine whether the different types of CQ imposed at different periods and areas in the Philippines are effective in mitigating the pernicious effects of COVID-19 while controlling for other confounding factors. Our natural experiment (difference-in-differences fixed effects) using panel data that we constructed results in the following. First, a lockdown is effective only in reducing COVID-19 incidence and mortality when combined with health capacity and sociodemographic characteristics that could potentially capture preferences to comply. Second, the efficacy of a CQ persists over time but it is somewhat reduced. Third, heterogeneity in the effectiveness of a quarantine exists across the different types of CQ, with a stricter CQ apparently more effective. Fourth, the number of nurses and other health care workers, urbanity and population matter in improving the health outcomes of areas under quarantine.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that the non-response rise in the important US CPS data set is caused largely by partially-responding households. The rising refusals artificially suppressed the measured labor force participation rate, among other effects.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 781, 2021

How Does the Dramatic Rise of CPS Non-Response Impact Labor Market Indicators? – Download PDF
by Bernhardt, Robert & Munro, David & Wolcott, Erin

GLO Fellow David Munro

Author Abstract: Since 2010 and before the pandemic hit, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show that partially-responding households – households that respond to some but not all of the survey’s eight panels – account for most of the rise. Leveraging the labor force status of partially-responding households in the months surrounding their non-response, we find that rising refusals artificially suppressed the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio but had little discernible effect on the unemployment rate. Factors robustly correlated with state-level refusal rates include a larger urban population, a smaller Democratic vote share (our proxy for sentiment towards government), and the economic and social changes brought about by manufacturing decline.

Featured image: Mika-Baumeister-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that employees who are under a dual condition of stress, the coronavirus pandemic and the risk of job loss, respond with training efforts.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 780, 2021

Job Training, Remote Working, and Self-Employment: Displaced Workers Beyond Employment Hysteresis – Download PDF
by Focacci, Chiara Natalie & Santarelli, Enrico

GLO Fellow Enrico Santarelli

Author Abstract: The recent SARS-Cov-2 pandemic has contributed to several corporate crises. As a result, many Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Italy have filed for bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2020. In addition to a gigantic macroeconomic effect, the lockdown has impacted individuals to a large extent. In this article, we investigate the behavioral response of employees who are under a dual condition of stress; namely, the pandemic and the risk of job loss. The hypothesis of employment hysteresis is challenged by looking at the tendency of individuals who are employed in firms facing a crisis, or in difficulty, to participate in training measures for: a similar job, remote working, and self-employment. Findings from a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model show a significant increase in the likelihood to participate in standard or high-commitment training measures for similar jobs and remote working for employees who: i) positively value their professional social capital, i.e. their membership in a trade union (+24.4 and +25.2 percentage points, respectively); ii) have some displaced colleagues (+29.6 and +40.7 percentage points, respectively). Finally, we find that employees with a lower educational background are less likely to consider the possibility of switching between occupations.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for China that the SARS epidemic in 2003 significantly increased the intergenerational transmission of education, and hence inequality.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 779, 2021

Pandemics and Intergenerational Mobility of Education: Evidence from the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Epidemic in China – Download PDF
by Liang, Wenquan & Xue, Sen

GLO Fellow Sen Xue

Author Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2003 on intergenerational mobility in China. Using large cross-city variation in SARS cases, our triple difference-in-differences estimates suggest that the SARS epidemic significantly increases the intergenerational transmission of education. Our results show that a one percent increase in the number of SARS cases leads to a 9.3 percent increase in the maternal intergeneration transmission coefficient. The effect of the SARS epidemic is stronger for admission to 4-year bachelor programmes and more concentrated in female students and students in large cities. This paper also investigates the potential mechanisms and finds that more highly educated mothers tend to be more engaged in children’s studies during the epidemic period when teachers are absent. These results convey the warning message that pandemics may reduce intergenerational mobility of education.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper links the African banking system development to the colonial and legal history of the respective countries.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 778, 2021

Differences in African Banking Systems: Causes and Consequences – Download PDF
by Mutarindwa, Samuel & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas

GLO Fellow Dorothea Schäfer & GLO Affiliate Samuel Mutarindwa

Author Abstract: This paper links banking system development to the colonial and legal history of African countries. Based on a sample of 40 African countries from 2000 to 2018, our empirical findings show a significant dependence of current financial institutions on the inherited legal origin and the colonization type. Findings also reveal that current financial legal institutions are not major determinants of banking system development, and that institutional development and governance quality are more important. A high share of government spending relative to GDP also positively affects banking system development in African countries.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper examines the relationship between incident cognitive impairment and receipt of diagnosis among American older adults. It calls for targeted interventions to improve the rate of early diagnosis, especially among vulnerable populations.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 777, 2021

Cognitive Impairment and Prevalence of Memory-Related Diagnoses among U.S. Older Adults – Download PDF
by Qian, Yuting & Chen, Xi & Tang, Diwen & Kelley, Amy S. & Li, Jing

GLO Fellow Xi Chen

Author Abstract: Cognitive impairment creates significant challenges to health and well-being of the fast-growing aging population. Early recognition of cognitive impairment may confer important advantages, allowing for diagnosis and appropriate treatment, education, psychosocial support, and improved decision-making regarding life planning, health care, and financial matters. Yet the prevalence of memory-related diagnoses among older adults with early symptoms of cognitive impairment is unknown. Using 2000-2014 Health and Retirement Survey – Medicare linked data, we leveraged within-individual variation in a longitudinal cohort design to examine the relationship between incident cognitive impairment and receipt of diagnosis among American older adults. Receipt of a memory-related diagnosis was determined by ICD-9-CM codes. Incident cognitive impairment was assessed using the modified Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status (TICS). We found overall low prevalence of early memory-related diagnosis, or high rate of underdiagnosis, among older adults showing symptoms of cognitive impairment, especially among non-whites and socioeconomically disadvantaged subgroups. Our findings call for targeted interventions to improve the rate of early diagnosis, especially among vulnerable populations.

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that harmonization reduced the probability of receiving workers compensation in treated states by 0.9 percentage points.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 773, 2021

The impact of harmonising Australia’s workplace health and safety laws on workers compensation – Download PDF
by Bilgrami, Anam & Cutler, Henry & Sinha, Kompal

GLO Fellows Anam Bilgrami & Kompal Sinha

Author Abstract: We analyse the impact of harmonising workplace health and safety laws in Australia on workplace injury and disease by estimating effects on the probability of receiving workers compensation in the past year. The introduction of the reform in all but two Australian states created a unique, region-based natural experiment. We exploit this regional variation to perform difference-in-difference estimation on a panel data sample of workers from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, accounting for a diverse range of individuallevel covariates associated with workers compensation claiming. We find harmonisation reduced the probability of receiving workers compensation in treated states by 0.9 percentage points (p=0.047). This is likely to have resulted from increased enforcement activity by state governments and increased managerial focus on improving workplace health and safety. Subgroup analysis suggests the high-risk construction industry had a larger and more significant reduction of 2.9-3.6 percentage points (p=0.030). We suggest the construction industry had a greater potential for achieving reductions in workplace injury and disease due to a higher level of underlying workplace risk and the introduction of construction specific legislative requirements imposed by harmonisation.

Featured image: Jordan-Whitt-on-Unsplash

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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A new GLO Discussion Paper provides findings of a population survey in Vietnam confirming an overall positive feedback from citizens with the government’s response and support package in spite of drastic economic damages.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 776, 2021

Citizens’ Opinions of and Experiences with Government Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam – Download PDF
by Do, Huyen Thanh & Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Long Thanh & Nguyen, Phuong Minh & Ngo, Quyen Ha & Phung, Quyen Ha

GLO Fellow Cuong Nguyen

Author Abstract: The study aims to understand the impact of COVID-19 on citizens’ livelihoods, the accessibility and effectiveness of the Government’s relief packages, and public confidence and trust in the government responses to the pandemic. The study reveals several important findings as follows. First, the government responses to contain the COVID-19 outbreak have proved to be swift and effective, according to citizens surveyed. This is evident in the respondents’ high consensus of strong support for government policy and actions to contain the pandemic. Importantly, people who have positive experiences with their provincial performance in governance and public administration were more supportive of the government’s responses during the pandemic. Second, despite such government and citizen responses, the COVID-19 pandemic has generated negative impacts on the Vietnamese citizens and the national economy as a whole. The survey findings reveal that 24 percent of the respondents reported job losses because of the pandemic. These are also 65 percent of the respondents reporting income loss. Third, the findings of the survey reaffirm an overall positive feedback from citizens of and experience with the government’s support package. People who received supports from the package were more likely to support the government’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. A new GLO Discussion Paper has shown that this had reduced infections substantially.

The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.

GLO Discussion Paper No. 775, 2021

The Impact of Mass Antigen Testing for COVID-19 on the Prevalence of the Disease – Download PDF
by Kahanec, Martin & Lafférs, Lukáš & Schmidpeter, Bernhard

GLO Fellow Martin Kahanec

Author Abstract: More than a year since the first outbreak in China in December 2019, most countries are still struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Mass antigen testing has been proposed as an instrument to mitigate the spread of the disease and allow the economy to re-open. We investigate the potential benefits of mass antigen testing for the mitigation of the pandemic, using data from a uniquely designed testing that took place in Slovakia in autumn 2020. As the first country in the world, Slovakia implemented and repeated mass rapid antigen testing. After the first round of nation-wide testing, only districts above an ex-ante unknown prevalence threshold were re-tested. Comparing districts in the neighborhood above and below the threshold using a quasi-experimental design, we find that repeated mass antigen testing reduces infections by about 25-30% and results in a decrease in R0 of 0.3 two weeks after the testing. These effects peaked about 15 days after the second round of testing and gradually dissipated afterward. These results suggest that mass testing could be an effective tool in curbing the spread of COVID-19, but for lasting effects it would need to be conducted regularly in relatively short intervals.

Featured image: Mufid-Majnun-on-Unsplash

More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster

GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS,  EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.

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