Author Abstract: This paper evaluates if and to what extend the risk of becoming Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) has worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy. The analysis is based on a unique dataset from the merging of two sample surveys, the Italian Labor Force Survey and the Institutional Quality Index dataset. We find that the probability of being NEET significantly increased during the pandemic, but heterogeneously between age cohorts and geographical areas. The most affected categories have been young people (aged 25-34) and those living in North-West regions. Females are mostly affected compared to males, especially those experiencing motherhood and living in a Southern province. Investment in education reduces the NEET status, mainly for age-group 25-34 in the South. Participation in the civil society significantly reduces the probability to being NEET. Finally, active policies conducted at regional level are a further educational investment that protect from becoming NEET, although their effectiveness is not significant in the Southern regions. We provide novel evidence to inform policymakers and help building evidence-based policies, tailored on local needs.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The 36th EBES Conference in Istanbul will take place on July 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, 2021 in Hybrid Mode.This is aGLO supported event. EBESis theEurasia Business and Economics Society, a strategic partner and institutional supporter of GLO. GLO President Klaus F. Zimmermann is also President of EBES.(Invited speakers see below.)
The conference includes a GLO Handbook Session on “Worker Representation, Labor-Management Relations and Labor Standards” organized and chaired by Uwe Jirjahn (University of Trier and GLO), who is a Section Editor of the Handbook. The event takes place on July 2, 3.50-5.50 pm, Istanbul time.
GLO Handbook Session: Worker Representation, Labor-Management Relations and Labor Standards
Decent Work and the Quality of Work and Employment Francis Green (University College London and GLO)
Union Membership and Collective Bargaining: Trends and Determinants Claus Schnabel (Universität Erlangen Nürnberg)
Unions, Worker Participation and Worker Well-Being Benjamin Artz (University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh and GLO) and John S. Heywood (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and GLO)
Worker Voice and Political Participation in Civil Society John Budd (University of Minnesota and GLO) and Ryan Lamare (University of Illinois and GLO)
Works Councils Jens Mohrenweiser (Bournemouth University)
Board-Level Worker Representation Aleksandra Gregoric (Copenhagen Business School)
Invited Speakersof EBES 36
EBES is pleased to announce that distinguished colleagues Barry Eichengreen, Narjess Boubakri, Klaus F. Zimmermann and Jonathan Batten will join the conference as the keynote speakers and/or invited editors.
Barry Eichengreen is the George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. He is a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). He worked as Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF. He is a regular monthly columnist for Project Syndicate. His books include The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018), How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future, with Livia Chitu and Arnaud Mehl, (2017), The Korean Economy: From a Miraculous Past to a Sustainable Future (Harvard East Asian Monographs) with Wonhyuk Lim, Yung Chul Park and Dwight H. Perkins, (2015), Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges, co-edited with Masahiro Kawai, (2015), Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History, (2015). He was awarded the Economic History Association’s Jonathan R.T. Hughes Prize for Excellence in Teaching in 2002 and the University of California at Berkeley Social Science Division’s Distinguished Teaching Award in 2004. He is also the recipient of a doctor honoris causa from the American University in Paris. He is ranked as one of the top economists by IDEAS: 6th (number of works), 22 (average rank score) etc. His research interests are: exchange rates and capital flows; the gold standard and the Great Depression; the European economy; European integration; the impact of China on the international economic and financial system; IMF policy. His research was published in top journals such as Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Review, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, and Journal of International Economics.
Narjess Boubakri is professor of Finance at American University of Sharjah (AUS) (United Arab Emirates) where she joined in 2007. She is currently the Dean of the School of Business Administration at AUS as well. She has taught at Laval University and HEC Montreal School of Business (Canada). She has also several editorial roles at leading journals such as Editor (Finance Research Letters), Co-Editor (Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance), Associate Editor (Journal of Corporate Finance), and Subject Editor (Emerging Markets Review; Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money; and Journal of International Business Policy). Her papers were published in well-known journals such as Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Corporate Finance, Journal of Banking and Finance, and Journal of Accounting Research. Her research has been widely cited (Google Scholar=6,000+). Her research areas are Corporate Governance, Privatization, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Mergers and Acquisitions, Legal and Political Institutions, Lobbying, and Earnings Management.
Klaus F. Zimmermann is President of the Global Labor Organization (GLO); Co-Director of POP at UNU-MERIT; Full Professor of Economics at Bonn University (em.); Honorary Professor, Maastricht University, Free University of Berlin and Renmin University of China; Member, German Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, Regional Science Academy, and Academia Europaea (Chair of its Section for Economics, Business and Management Sciences). Among others, he has worked at Macquarie University, the Universities of Melbourne, Princeton, Harvard, Munich, Kyoto, Mannheim, Dartmouth College and the University of Pennsylvania. Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and Fellow of the European Economic Association (EEA). Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Population Economics. Editorial Board of International Journal of Manpower, Research in Labor Economics and Comparative Economic Studies, among others. Founding Director, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Past-President, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). Distinguished John G. Diefenbaker Award 1998 of the Canada Council for the Arts; Outstanding Contribution Award 2013 of the European Investment Bank. Rockefeller Foundation Policy Fellow 2017; Eminent Research Scholar Award 2017, Australia; EBES Fellow Award 2018. He has published in many top journals including Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Public Choice, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Population Economics and Journal of Public Economics. His research fields are population, labor, development, and migration.
Jonathan Batten is professor of finance and CIMB-UUM Chair in Banking and Finance at the School of Economics, Finance and Banking at the University Utara Malaysia (Malaysia). Prior to this position, he worked at the Monash University (Australia), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong), and Seoul National University (Korea). He is a well-known academician who has published articles in many of the leading economics and finance journals and currently serves as the Editor of Emerging Markets Review (SSCI), Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money (SSCI), and Finance Research Letters (SSCI). He was also the President of EBES from July 2014 till December 2018. His current research interests include: financial market development and risk management; spread modelling arbitrage and market integration; and the investigation of the non-linear dynamics of financial prices.
Posted inEvents, News, Research|Comments Off on 36th EBES Conference, Istanbul/Turkey, July 1-3, 2021. Program now available including a GLO Handbook Session on “Worker Representation, Labor-Management Relations and Labor Standards” chaired by GLO Fellow Uwe Jirjahn.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds that an increase in national teams’ performance in international cups is associated with a drop in birth rates nine months after the event.
Author Abstract: Does national team performance boost birth rates? We compiled a unique dataset combining country-level monthly birth rates for 50 European countries, along 56 years, with measures of national teams’ performance in 27 international football events. We find that an increase in national teams’ performance in international cups is associated with a drop in birth rates nine months after the event. We hypothesize that these results might be explained by individuals’ time allocation choices.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible in the Journal of Population Economics finds that commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate in Chile.
Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes
by Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics FREE READLINK: https://rdcu.be/cnd2y
Author Abstract: This paper uses international commodity prices and local natural resource endowments as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in local Chilean economic conditions to study how these shocks impact fertility behavior of families in a small, emerging open economy where non-marital fertility is common but parental obligations are not well enforced. We find that these commodity shocks lead to an increase in the number of births and the birth rate. We argue that these results are consistent with most women experiencing an income effect and a limited substitution effect from commodity booms. This is confirmed by looking at groups that would have experienced a larger income than substitution effect: higher-order births, births within marital relationships, and those by mothers who do not experience an increase in their employment probability respond more strongly to these commodity booms.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing the Fourth IESR-GLO Virtual Conference. The conference this year is held from June 24 (Thursday) to June 26 (Saturday), 2021 through Zoom. The theme is Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs. Robert Moffitt and Timothy Smeeding are the keynote speakers. (Feng of IESR right & Zimmermann of GLO left)
Speakers on June 24 from the left: Michael Christl, Jinyuan Yang, Sen Xue Shuaizhang Feng, Robert Moffitt, Klaus F. Zimmermann Feng Chen, Laura V. Zimmermann, Xi Chen
Day 2; June 25:
Program
8.00-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.05 am New York / 1:00-4:05 pm London JUNE 24 (Thursday). Chair:Sen Xue(IESR, Jinan University & GLO)
8.00-8.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.05 am New York / 1:00-1:05 pm London Opening Remarks by Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO) & Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8.05-9.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:05-9.05 am New York / 1:05-2:05 pm London Keynote Lecture:Take-up in Social Assistance Programs: Theory and Evidence Keynote Speaker: Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University)
9.05-9.35 pm Beijing Time / 9:05-9.35 am New York / 2:05-2:35 pm London The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl Nabaneeta Biswas (Marshall University), Christopher Cornwell (University of Georgia) &Laura V. Zimmermann(University of Georgia & GLO)
9.35-10.05 pm Beijing Time / 9:35-10.05 am New York / 2:35-3:05 pm London Grandfathers and Grandsons: Social Security Expansion and Child Health in China Jinyuan Yang (Virginia Tech)& Xi Chen (Yale University & GLO)
10.05-10.35 pm Beijing Time / 10:05-10.35 am New York / 3:05-3:35 pm London Trapped in inactivity? Social Assistance and Labour Supply in Austria Michael Christl (European Commission & GLO) & Silvia De Poli (European Commission)
10.35-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 10:35-11.05 am New York / 3:35-4:05 pm London Does Paid Family Leave Save Infant Lives? Evidence from California Feng Chen(Tulane University & GLO)
8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London June 25 (Friday). Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8.00-8.45 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.45 am New York / 1:00-1:45 pm London Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges
8.45-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 8:45-9.30 am New York / 1:45-2:30 pm London South Korea. Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform
9.30-10.15 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.15 am New York / 2:30-3:15 pm London Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate
10.15-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10.15-11.00 am New York / 3:15-4:00 pm London Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges
8.00-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.00 am New York / 1:00-4:00 pm London JUNE 26 (Saturday). Chair: Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO)
8.00-9.00 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-9.00 am New York / 1:00-2:00 pm London Keynote Lecture:Poverty and Income Support Around the World: China, India and Asia in Comparative Perspective Keynote Speaker: Timothy Smeeding (University of Wisconsin–Madison)
9.00-9.30 pm Beijing Time / 9:00-9.30 am New York / 2:00-2:30 pm London The Health of Disability Insurance Enrollees: An International Comparison Enrica Croda (Ca’Foscari University of Venice & GLO),Jonathan Skinner (Dartmouth College) & Laura Yasaitis (Dartmouth College)
9.30-10.00 pm Beijing Time / 9:30-10.00 am New York / 2:30-3:00 pm London The Unintended Effect of Medicaid Aging Waivers on Informal Caregiving Xianhua (Emma) Zai(Ohio State University & GLO)
10.00-10.30 pm Beijing Time / 10:00-10.30 am New York / 3:00-3:30 pm London Housing Vouchers, Labor Supply and Household Formation: A Structural Approach Ning Zhang (University of Pittsburgh)
10.30-11.00 pm Beijing Time / 10:30-11.00 am New York / 3:30-4:00 pm London The Structure and Incentives of a COVID related Emergency Wage Subsidy Jules Linden (National University Ireland Galway & Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch), Cathal O’Donoghue (National University Ireland Galway), Denisa M. Sologon (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Reesarch)
Keynote speakers
Robert Moffitt on June 24; 8.00 pm Beijing Time
Robert A. Moffitt is the Krieger-Eisenhower Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins University and holds a joint appointment at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He obtained his Ph.D. degree from Brown University. His research interests are in the areas of labor economics and applied microeconometrics, with a special focus on the economics of issues relating to the low-income population in the U.S.. A large portion of his research has concerned the labor supply decisions of female heads of family and its response to the U.S. welfare system. He has published on the AFDC, Food Stamp, and Medicaid programs.
Moffitt has served as Chief Editor of the American Economic Review, Coeditor of the Review of Economics and Statistics, Chief Editor of the Journal of Human Resources, and as Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Panel to Evaluate Welfare Reform. He is currently editor of Tax Policy and the Economy.
Moffitt is also a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a recipient of a MERIT Award from the National Institutes of Health, a recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and Past President of the Population Association of America.
Timothy Smeeding on June 26; 8.00 pm Beijing Time
Timothy Smeeding is Lee Rainwater Distinguished Professor of Public Affairs and Economics of the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He was director of the Institute for Research on Poverty from 2008–2014 and was the founding director of the Luxembourg Income Study from 1983-2006. He was named the John Kenneth Galbraith Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science in 2017.
Professor Smeeding’s recent work has been on social and economic mobility across generations, inequality of income, consumption and wealth, and poverty in national and cross-national contexts.
His recent publications include: SNAP Matters: How Food Stamps Affect Health and Well Being (Stanford University Press, 2015); Monitoring Social Mobility in the 21st Century (Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2015); From Parents to Children: The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage (Russell Sage Foundation, 2012); Persistence, Privilege and Parenting: The Comparative Study of Intergenerational Mobility (Russell Sage Foundation, 2011); The Handbook of Economic Inequality (Oxford University Press, 2009); Poor Kids in a Rich Country: America’s Children in Comparative Perspective (Russell Sage Foundation, 2003); and The American Welfare State: Laggard or Leader?, (Oxford University Press, 2010).
Policy Forum on Social Assistance Systems
June 25th: 8:pm-11pm Beijing Time/ 8:00am-11am New York / 1:00pm-4:00pm London Chair: Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8:00-8:45 pm: Japan. Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Public Assistance in Japan: Current State and Challenges
8:45-9:30 pm: Korea. Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Social Assistance in South Korea: Policy Developments, Impacts and Implications for Future Reform
9:30-10:15 pm: Germany. Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Basic Income in Germany 1991-2021: Challenges After Reunification, Hartz Reforms and the Current Reform Debate
10:15-11:00 pm: Sweden. Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Social Assistance in Sweden – Provision, Recipients and Challenges
Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo) Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo, and the President of the Japan Institute of Public Finance. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from Queen’s University at Kingston, Canada. His research interests include redistribution, taxation and fiscal federalism.
Inhoe Ku(Seoul National University) Professor at the Department of Social Welfare, Seoul National University. He is currently working as the President of the Korean Academy of Social Welfare. His research has been focusing on poverty, inequality and social policy.
Alexander Spermann (FOM/Cologne, University of Freiburg and GLO) Has started his research on social assistance more than thirty years ago. After finishing his dissertation and habilitation at the University of Freiburg, he held leading positions at international research institutes (ZEW, IZA) and is currently Professor of Economics at FOM Cologne and University of Freiburg. He has been a regular contributor to the media for decades.
Björn Gustafsson (University of Gothenburg and GLO) Professor Emeritus, University of Gothenburg, Sweden. He has published several papers on social assistance in Sweden. Since the 1990s he has also studied various aspects on income among Chinese households.
From the left: Masayoshi Hayashi, Inhoe Ku, Alexander Spermann, and Björn Gustafsson
Posted inEvents, News, Research|Comments Off on Last day & flashlights of previous days: Fourth IESR-GLO Conference on ‘Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs’ online on June 24-26, 2021. Reminder – SESSION STARTS SOON with keynote of Timothy Smeeding.
The Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR) at Jinan University and the Global Labor Organization (GLO) are jointly organizing the Fourth IESR-GLO Virtual Conference. The conference this year will be held from June 24 (Thursday) to June 26 (Saturday), 2021 through Zoom. The theme is Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs. Robert Moffitt and Timothy Smeeding are the keynote speakers. To register see below.
The IESR-GLO annual conference is aimed to provide a platform for scholars and experts to exchange ideas on the current pressing economic issues through presentations of high-quality academic papers and policy discussions. Previous IESR-GLO Conferences have covered topics such as the Economics of Covid-19 in 2020 and on the Labor Markets in Belt and Road countries in 2019. (Feng of IESR right & Zimmermann of GLO left)
To participate
No participation fee. For registration, please click the link: https://www.wjx.cn/vj/mKRDcqR.aspx
8.00-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-11.05 am New York / 1:00-4:05 pm London JUNE 24 (Thursday). Chair:Sen Xue(IESR, Jinan University & GLO)
Speakers on June 24 from the left: Michael Christl, Jinyuan Yang, Sen Xue Shuaizhang Feng, Robert Moffitt, Klaus F. Zimmermann Feng Chen, Laura V. Zimmermann, Xi Chen
8.00-8.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:00-8.05 am New York / 1:00-1:05 pm London Opening Remarks by Shuaizhang Feng (IESR, Jinan University & GLO) & Klaus F. Zimmermann (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University & GLO)
8.05-9.05 pm Beijing Time / 8:05-9.05 am New York / 1:05-2:05 pm London Keynote Lecture:Take-up in Social Assistance Programs: Theory and Evidence Keynote Speaker: Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University)
9.05-9.35 pm Beijing Time / 9:05-9.35 am New York / 2:05-2:35 pm London The Power of Lakshmi: Monetary Incentives for Raising a Girl Nabaneeta Biswas (Marshall University), Christopher Cornwell (University of Georgia) &Laura V. Zimmermann(University of Georgia & GLO)
9.35-10.05 pm Beijing Time / 9:35-10.05 am New York / 2:35-3:05 pm London Grandfathers and Grandsons: Social Security Expansion and Child Health in China Jinyuan Yang (Virginia Tech)& Xi Chen (Yale University & GLO)
10.05-10.35 pm Beijing Time / 10:05-10.35 am New York / 3:05-3:35 pm London Trapped in inactivity? Social Assistance and Labour Supply in Austria Michael Christl (European Commission & GLO) & Silvia De Poli (European Commission)
10.35-11.05 pm Beijing Time / 10:35-11.05 am New York / 3:35-4:05 pm London Does Paid Family Leave Save Infant Lives? Evidence from California Feng Chen(Tulane University & GLO)
Posted inEvents, News|Comments Off on Fourth IESR-GLO Conference on ‘Social Safety Net and Welfare Programs’ online on June 24-26, 2021. Day 1 (June 24) & registration information.
Using data for young Romanians, a new GLO Discussion Paper finds that it is external religiosity that interacts with weaker addictive behaviors like smoking, drinking and using drugs.
Author Abstract: While under communism, identity-providing religion was suppressed, religiosity is strong today even among the youth in post-communist countries. This provides an appropriate background to investigate how external and internal religiosity relates to addictive behaviors like smoking, drinking and drugs among the young. This study shows that not religion as such or internal religiosity, but largely observable (external) religiosity prevents them from wallowing those vices.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new GLO Discussion Paper finds for China that vocational upper secondary graduates face a wage penalty compared to academic upper secondary graduates.
Author Abstract: In this paper, we use the Chinese General Social Survey data to analyse the returns to upper secondary vocational education in China. To address possible endogeneity of vocational training due to omitted heterogeneity, we construct a novel instrumental variable using the proportion of tertiary education graduates relative to the entire population by year. Our main finding is that, although returns to vocational upper secondary education appear higher than returns to academic upper secondary education according to the Mincerian equation, the results from the instrumental variable method tell the opposite story: vocational upper secondary graduates face a wage penalty compared to academic upper secondary graduates. The wage penalty is confirmed by an alternative and more recent IV method – the Lewbel method (Lewbel, 2012). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for endogeneity when estimating the returns to vocational education.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
Author Abstract: This paper investigates the relative importance of confidence in public institutions to explain cross-country differences in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. We extend the related literature by employing regression and machine learning methods to identify the most critical predictors of deaths attributed to the pandemic. We find that a one standard deviation increase (e.g., the actual difference between the US and Finland) in confidence is associated with 350.9 fewer predicted deaths per million inhabitants. Confidence in public institutions is one of the most important predictors of deaths attributed to COVID-19, compared to country-level measures of individual health risks, the health system, demographics, economic and political development, and social capital. Our results suggest that effective policy implementation requires citizens to cooperate with their governments, and willingness to cooperate relies on confidence in public institutions.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
A new paper published ONLINE FIRST freely accessible demonstrate for Italy that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official statistical method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of local mortality.
by Augusto Cerqua, Roberta Di Stefano, Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli
Published ONLINE FIRST 2021: Journal of Population Economics OPEN ACCESS andPDF.
GLO Fellow Marco Letta
Author Abstract: Estimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.
The Global Labor Organization (GLO) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental organization that functions as an international network and virtual platform to stimulate global research, debate and collaboration.
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