A new GLO Discussion Paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty.
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GLO Discussion Paper No. 468, 2020
Which Model for Poverty Predictions? – Download PDF
by Verme, Paolo
GLO Fellow Paolo Verme
Author Abstract: OLS models are the predominant choice for poverty predictions in a variety of contexts such as proxy-means tests, poverty mapping or cross-survey imputations. This paper compares the performance of econometric and machine learning models in predicting poverty using alternative objective functions and stochastic dominance analysis based on coverage curves. It finds that the choice of an optimal model largely depends on the distribution of incomes and the poverty line. Comparing the performance of different econometric and machine learning models is therefore an important step in the process of optimizing poverty predictions and targeting ratios.
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